One would wish to have a direct and simple answer to this big question: Yes we can! But unfortunately there are no free lunches, and whatever strategy we will adopt to satisfy global food demand, food production will inevitably have adverse impacts on our environment.
Editor’s Note: This post originally appeared on the Agriculture and Ecosystems Blog on March 25, 2015.
Between 1990 and 2010 Latin America has lost over 1 million of km2 of tropical forest, becoming the second largest deforestation hotspot in the world, only preceded by Southeast Asia. Photo by CIFOR.
In some regions people will suffer from water scarcity or water bodies will be polluted from overuse of chemical fertilizers. In other regions increasing food production will have negative consequences for biodiversity and the provision of many other ecosystem services that we rely on.
So maybe we should be a bit less ambitious. We could, for example, ask ourselves what options we do have for feeding the world in the years to come at the lowest environmental cost. Fortunately, it is possible to provide some insights into this question.
Researchers from the Technical University of Madrid, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Harvard University have just published a paper in PLOS ONE which jointly assesses issues of future global food security and environmental outcomes. The study describes different future agricultural production pathways in one of the most important food baskets of the world: Latin America.
Latin America is the region with the greatest agricultural land and water availability per capita in the world. It holds 15% of the global agricultural land and 33% of available, renewable water resources. This environmental resource richness has fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010.
On the one hand, such exponential growth has fueled agricultural and economic development in the region, and gave Latin America a pivotal role in meeting global food demand. On the other hand, food exports have also brought about important adverse environmental impacts. Between 1990 and 2010 Latin America has lost over 1 million of km2 of tropical forest, becoming the second largest deforestation hotspot in the world, only preceded by Southeast Asia. This deforestation might contribute to a gradual drying up of southern Brazil and northern Argentina.
If we want to maintain a livable planet for our grandchildren, we cannot continue down this path. Population growth and rising living standards accompanied by dietary shifts throughout the world are increasing the demand for food. The growing desire to consume animal products, but also oils, sugars and vegetables rather than sorghum or millet, for example, is particularly resource-use intensive. It is therefore important that Latin America continues to contribute to feeding the world in the future, but that it does so in a more sustainable way than in the past.
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Bárbara Willaarts holds a PhD in Environmental Planning and is a Senior Research fellow at the Technical University of Madrid and an international consultant working on different issues related to the Water-Food-Environment nexus. During the time of this project, she was also affiliated to the Water Observatory of the Botin Foundation. Insa Flachsbarth is an economist and works on questions related to globalization of agricultural markets with its poverty, food security and environmental impacts. She is currently a PhD student at the Technical University of Madrid. During the time of this project, she was also affiliated to the Water Observatory of the Botin Foundation. Claudia Ringler is Deputy Division Director, Environment and Production Technology Division at the International Food Policy Research Institute and is Co-leader of the Managing Resource Variability Theme of the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems Program.
Joaquín Böhnert
April 12, 2015 at 6:53pmLatin America indeed is so rich in biodiversity and natural resources! Very unfortunate there are exploited and plundered to a great extent. The challenges to protect them are mentioned in your article. But to come out of the ivory tower of university, etc.. a more practical approach is needed to find the way to the rural people, living and working in this environment. By “putting the last first” there would be an enforcement of their living conditions and structures.